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The
following address was given to the AGM on 25 November 2003.
A corporate file interview was also completed on 28 November
2003, this document can be found under FAQ
and elaborates on issues discussed in the Managing Director's
Address. It is suggested that Investors read both documents.
Managing
Director's Address to AGM - 25 November 2003
Ladies
and Gentlemen
The year which has
passed since I spoke to you at the last Annual General Meeting
has been a particularly challenging one for Magnesium International
Limited (MIL). We have not been able to progress the
company's SAMAG magnesium smelter project through the final
stages of financing and into construction as we had hoped.
However, we have
made significant and worthwhile progress, and this is noted
in detail in the Managing Director's section in the Annual
Report. I do not intend to go over that ground again,
and in my remarks today I will concentrate on:
The major factors
which have affected us, and which to a varying extent still
are affecting us, are:
-
two significant
Western supply side industry events, namely the closure
of Noranda's Magnola smelter in Canada and the suspension
of construction of Australian Magnesium Corporation's
Stanwell smelter in Queensland;
-
the undersubscription
of capital to our company's rights issue in June of this
year;
-
the rising value
of the Australian dollar, especially compared to the US
dollar; and
-
the overall magnesium
market outlook
One of the supply
side events was foreshadowed in last year's AGM speech.
The Magnola smelter was well short of achieving its design
capacity of 63,000 tonnes per year and did not appear to be
making sufficient progress in commissioning. Noranda
confirmed these observations when it announced in January
2003 that the smelter would be mothballed. Production
ceased in April and it now seems clear that the smelter is
permanently closed. The technology used in the smelter
cost far too much to build and simply did not work to design.
The suspension of
construction at AMC's Stanwell project finally occurred in
June 2003 after numerous announcements of capital cost overruns
and of the failure of the project to secure a suitable fixed
PC construction price for the project. As the final
design progressed, it was seen that more equipment would be
needed to make the smelter operational and costs escalated
accordingly. The cost to complete the project significantly
exceeded AMC's funding capacity, nor did AMC have the support
of a large balance sheet.
The predominant
cause of both of these project failures is that they were
attempting to introduce new, unproven process technologies,
on a very large scale based on limited demonstration plants.
This is a very high risk project strategy.
MIL has spent a
lot of time this year differentiating our smelter from the
Magnola and Stanwell projects. In stark contrast to
these projects, we have pointed out that our smelter development
strategy embraces:
-
an absolutely
proven technology;
-
a two stage construction
plan which starts small and then builds up capacity over
time;
-
a fixed price
EPC construction contract, whose value is known before
we commit to building, so that we don't get ourselves
into the situation where we run out of funds and fail
to complete what we start; and
-
a fully committed
100% sales offtake agreement with major European trading
company, ThyssenKrupp Metallurgie.
The AMC and Magnola
failures were mostly negative for the equity market during
the year, but they now present the major long-term positive
of a significant market opportunity for MIL. Current
industry forecasts predict that 160,000 tonnes per year of
new Western supply is needed by 2012. SAMAG is now
regarded by the magnesium industry as the most likely greenfields
magnesium smelter project anywhere in the Western world which
could be able to fulfil any major portion of this requirement.
We are certainly in an excellent strategic position.
The second matter
which has affected us through the year was the under subscription
of our rights issue in June. We believe that three
main matters contributed to this undersubscription;
- the general state of the equity market, which at the time
of issue was very risk averse;
- the smelter failures previously discussed, with the timing
of the AMC announcement being especially damaging by causing
very negative industry press at exactly the same time as
the rights issue was in progress; and
- the decision of the South Australian Government to conduct
a Business Case review of our project, also during the issue
period.
We were aware of
the first of these matters and delayed the issue as long as
possible in an attempt to encounter more positive market conditions,
but we were not aware that the others would occur when they
did.
The SA Government
review in particular was a major surprise and we are still
at a loss to understand why the review was initiated at that
time. MIL has always gone to considerable effort to
keep the SA Government informed about the project with very
regular meetings and written communications. We believe
that the need for a public review of the sort which occurred
was totally unnecessary. We indicated this view to
the South Australian Government at the time.
The review was completed
in June, did not uncover any previously unknown matters, and,
as we predicted, was positive for SAMAG and for MIL.
The SA Government's commitment to the provision of $25m of
infrastructure support was confirmed and maintained.
MIL subsequently received a letter from the SA Government
outlining the conditions attaching to the SA Government's
commitment. The conditions are consistent with those
previously established, subject to an extension to the end
of 2004 of the time allowed for the project to reach Financial
Close.
Unfortunately however,
the damage was done, and our failure to raise the required
funding from the rights issue has significantly affected our
ability to progress our company's objectives as we had planned.
We could not complete the Magsheet initiative we had
negotiated with the CSIRO and we have had to delay the fixing
of a new EPC construction price for our two stage construction
strategy.
The under subscription
has brought into very clear focus the matters which are most
critical to completing the company's mission to commercialise
the Dow magnesium smelting technology. We have therefore
decided, as our priority, that we must concentrate on identifying
parties who can become cornerstone investors with us for the
future.
We have been conducting
this search and have presented the investment case for the
smelter to a number of parties during the year. We
are advancing our prospects with some of these organisations
at present. Their timing is their own, but they have
also been affected by the matters I have already addressed
above.
The parties we are
talking to have focused on the need to present the best possible
economic case for the smelter so that the project has the
greatest chance of success before they will commit to an investment.
The economic case has been significantly influenced
during the year by the third major factor I cited at the start
of this speech, namely the rise in the value of the Australian
dollar. Since January of 2003 the A$ has risen by 28%
against the US dollar, which s the main currency used for
the trading of magnesium products. By contrast the
competing supplier nations in the magnesium industry have
experienced the following currency changes:
This A$'s rise has
made all current and potential exporters in Australia less
competitive, although some commodities have experienced a
rise in their USD price which has partially compensated for
the rise. We have seen some increases in the magnesium
price driven by internal cost pressures in China but these
have not fully compensated for the A$. We need to look
very closely at the cost structure for the SAMAG project as
a result of the currency situation.
Turning now to the
market situation, - we see that demand for magnesium and magnesium
alloys is continuing to grow strongly. Magnesium consumption
in the first six months of 2003 was up 6% compared to 2002.
The reduction in Western world magnesium production,
caused by the closure of the Magnola smelter in Canada, will
hit home in the second half of this year and will bring on
additional exports from China.
The strong demand
appears set to continue. CRU International, a leading
commodities forecasting company in London, reported in its
new 10-year forecast for magnesium, issued in May 2003, that
it expects the magnesium market to grow by 6% per year compound
over the 10 years to 2012. This growth rate would require
an increase in primary production from the 420,000 tonnes
delivered in 2002, to 770,000 tonnes in 2012, a rise of 350,000
tonnes. With the majority of growth forecast to be
in SAMAG's target market of the diecasting alloy sector, CRU
believes that an additional 160,000 tonnes of this capacity
will be needed from new Western world smelters,
which need to commence production within that ten year period.
CRU also forecasts,
in its Base Case prediction, that there will be a rising trend
in prices over the next three years. If cost pressures
continue within China, as they are currently doing, with increased
costs for coal, transport and other raw materials, or if the
yuan floats even to a small extent, these price rises could
be even greater.
Growth in the diecasting
alloy sector has been further supported by a forecast from
Hydro Magnesium, the world's largest magnesium producer.
Hydro expects the demand for diecasting alloys in Europe to
grow by 12% per year for the next five years driven mainly
by increased automotive usage.
I would now like
to move on to our future plans for MIL.
Our major goal remains
firmly the building of a primary magnesium smelter based on
the Dow technology for which we hold the global exclusive
licence.
With respect to
the smelter project:
- we will be concentrating on securing appropriate cornerstone
investors for the smelter as our top priority;
- as a result of our review of the economic case and the
requirements of potential cornerstone investors, MIL is
today announcing that it intends to conduct a formal review
of all potential smelter development sites in Australia,
including our current site at Port Pirie in South Australia;
and
- we will be undertaking further engineering work with a
view to incorporating some improvements to the technology
which Dow had been pursuing into our smelter design.
These will not in any way compromise the bankability of
the smelter but will be aimed at enhancing the cost structure
of the project and perhaps making some upwards revision
to planned smelter capacity.
The major site specific
parameters we will be reviewing are those which influence
the project's economic attractiveness, particularly capital
cost, power price, gas cost and ore cost. Finding the
right mix of these costs is critically important for our existing
shareholders and potential investors.
The primary areas
we will be examining, in addition to South Australia, are
Queensland and Victoria. Queensland has a number of
ore sources and different power and gas options between Gladstone
and Townsville. In Victoria, MIL will investigate potential
sites in the Latrobe Valley. For these, ore could be
supplied from MIL's South Australian leases, if other factors
are favourable. MIL may also seek to discuss options
with other proposed magnesium project owners in Australia.
Movement of the
project within Australia would entail a minimal amount of
additional engineering work or physical testing. New
capital cost estimates will be carried out in conjunction
with our construction partner, Thiess Ltd.
We expect that it
may take up to six months to fully complete the review.
A major timing factor would be the requirement to undertake
another Environmental Impact Study in a new location, but
as we have already passed this process in one Australian state,
we would not expect it to be a significant hurdle.
MIL has pared back its cost base to essential engineering
and commercial staff and will contain corporate costs during
the period of site evaluation.
We are also still
vigorously pursuing the Magsheet initiative, because we firmly
believe that the technology which CSIRO has developed will
lead to a significant expansion in the value added use of
magnesium alloys. We are currently discussing the possibility
of an alternative structure and funding arrangement with CSIRO.
We have proposed that this will involve a separate
listing of Magsheet with MIL having a significant carried
interest. More information will be provided if we can
successfully progress this matter over the coming months.
In order to fund
the above work we have recently announced that we are conducting
a Shareholders Share Purchase Scheme (SSPS) for MIL.
If appropriate, MIL will also use some of the funds raised
in the SSPS to undertake a listing on the Alternative Investment
Market (AIM) in London. The AIM has recently changed
its entry rules to allow easier listing for ASX companies
and has also significantly reduced entry costs. The
AIM has access to more providers of capital for ventures like
SAMAG than the Australian market.
Clearly we intend
to be very busy over the next half year in particular to accomplish
these tasks.
Ladies and gentlemen,
last year I reiterated MIL's strengths at the conclusion of
my speech. These strengths are worth repeating here.
SAMAG will be a
low risk project. It has extremely well defined capital
and operating cost structures, it will use tried and proven
technology and we already have one of the world's largest
companies signed up to buy all the output. It is environmentally
safe and will contribute to an overall reduction in global
greenhouse gas emissions.
There is a strongly
growing market for our intended products and our project can
become the lowest total cost electrolytic magnesium smelter
in the world. It will certainly not be beaten for reliability
and quality of production. As a financial investment
it will be attractive.
In the next year
we expect to make further substantial progress and to gather
more support in what we expect to be better conditions in
the equity market. We will keep you well informed as
we progress towards realizing our vision of a significant
presence in the world's magnesium industry.
For further information
contact:
Gordon Galt
Managing Director
Magnesium International
Limited
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